Since the LDP’s victory in Japan, industries highlighted by Ms. Takaichi as policy “priorities” have outperformed, reflecting investor expectations of supportive government action. A key question for investors is whether government spending is actually being deployed in line with stated policies — and whether the targeted industries are truly benefiting from those allocations. To assess …
SBS Holdings is an M&A-driven consolidator in Japanese logistics, which is currently in the early stages of industry consolidation. Over 60% of domestic freight is handled by operators with fewer than 50 vehicles*. In 1/25, I wrote a note on Zero, a specialist in used car transportation, in which SBS holds a 20% stake. (*By …
SBS Holdings (2384): The CEO Effect: Leadership as a Stock Growth Catalyst? Read More »
Serendip is a small-cap name, yet its FY3/26 P/E of 9.6x stands in stark contrast to peers like Genda (30x) and Next Gen (68x). This discount suggests the market may be skeptical of Serendip’s ambitious 145% operating profit guidance for FY3/26. The valuation disconnect is puzzling, especially given its EV/EBIT of 29x—nearly on par with …
Serendip Holdings (7318) — Small but very scalable acquirer with 9.6x PE Read More »
I have always wanted to write about Weathernews (market cap Y102 Bn). But, WN, one of the world’s largest private comprehensive weather information services, has always been expensive. Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of typhoons, floods, and heatwaves. Both corporations and governments are investing more in disaster prevention and early warning systems. …
Weathernews 4825: Down 10%: Is It Time to Buy? Unpriced Upside? Read More »
In 2024 and 2025, many regional banks reported stronger net interest income and profit growth, supported by rising policy rates. With Ms. Takaichi now at the helm, the key question is whether this momentum will continue. Japan’s new and first female prime minister, Ms. Takaichi, inherits the economic policy framework of former Prime Minister Shinzo …
Ms. Takaichi and Regional Banks/Kyoto Financial Group 5844 Read More »
The Nikkei Average has surged 48.6% from its April 7 low of ¥30,792 to ¥45,769 as of Oct 3. With bottom-up opportunities harder to uncover in this environment, I tried the net cash ratio* as a fundamental value indicator. Among companies that appear sufficiently large to merit consideration by institutional investors, TOMEN DEVICES (TD) stands …
Tomen Devices 2737 – AI Stock: Safer Bargain or Value Trap? Read More »
Kohoku Kogyo (KK) is a global niche leader in two specialized segments: Lead terminals for EV and AI applications Optical components for submarine cables These are high-barrier, precision-driven markets where KK holds top global share. Stock Performance: Over the past three years, KK has underperformed the broader market: KK: +24.8% vs. TOPIX: +63.26% This period …
The company (GI) went public in 11/24. GI provides AI-driven DX support and consulting-based software solutions to help businesses grow without relying on manual labor. Amid a wave of consulting firm IPOs, the sector is evolving rapidly, with rising demand for specialized service offerings. I wrote a brief note right before the IPO which expressed …
Globe-ing (277A) – Putting my concerns to rest. Evaluating Opportunity After a 17% Drop Read More »
When I first met with the company several years ago, I remember thinking, “I don’t understand this business. Why is an industrial gas company selling food?” That apparent lack of strategic focus may have contributed to the performance gap between Air Water and its peers—Nippon Sanso and Japan Materials. The 10-year price charts below highlight …
Air Water (4088): Business Restructuring: The Turning Point for Margin Growth? Read More »
Back on November 26, 2023, I wrote about Warabeya Nichiyo as part of an exercise to explore the distinction between a value stock and a value trap. At the time, I believed Warabeya was a fitting candidate for this analysis. In hindsight, however, the market has proven me wrong—at least so far. Had we invested …
Value Trap vs. Value Stock Thesis: Warabeya Nichiyo (2918) Read More »