I wrote this note in early May but never sent it out. However, this commodity stock may appeal to more investors than I initially expected. So here is the brief summary of my note.  The full note is available to my clients.  Interested? Please let me know!

The stock has two drivers:

1) Reduction in Cross Share Holdings

The plan was established in 11/22 to sell Y6 Bn. Accordingly, the company sold Y2 Bn in FY 3/23 , Y0.2Bn in FY3/24, Y 1.1 Bn in the first 9 months of FY 3/25. The proceeds can be used for new projects and shareholder returns.

2) Aiding the company achieving its mid term plan goals of ROIC 7%, long term forecast for copper and limestone prices remains positive.

Copper prices in cents per pound (¢/lb):

• 2025: Expected to range between 441¢ and 523¢ per pound, averaging 481¢.
• 2026: Forecasted to fluctuate between 491¢ and 576¢ per pound, with an average of 549¢.
• 2027: Prices may reach 611¢ per pound, with highs of 658¢.
• 2028: Projected to climb to 783¢ per pound, driven by demand from renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Limestone:

• 2025: Expected to increase 2–5% due to construction booms and infrastructure projects.
• 2030: Prices may rise 10–15%, driven by sustainable materials and increasing environmental regulations.
• 2035: Forecasts suggest continued moderate growth, with limestone remaining a crucial material in industry and construction.