Serendip (7318): One of My Bad Calls in 2025: A Limit-Down on 11/14/25 and Slow Recovery Despite a 25% DCF Discount My serial‑acquirer picks have underperformed: Serendip and f-‑Cord remain weak, though Next Gen 319A is tracking in line. However, my recent meeting with Serendip was constructive. Serendip is a business-succession–focused M&A grower, distinguished by its fully …
I received some constructive feedback on my Link & Motivation (LMI) note, which I had shared with LMI management (please let me know if you have not seen my original LMI note) 1. TOPIX Rebalancing Before sharing LMI’s responses, I need to point out one stock driver which I neglected to point out in my …
The company’s sales grew low double digit y/y since the COVID lows, yet the below peer comp table shows the company is trading at the lowest PE. Based on my SOTP analysis, the company is trading at roughly a 17% discount to its NAV. Management is aware of this disconnect between intrinsic value and market …
For the past six months, I have been trying to understand why NextGen has consistently outperformed other serial acquirers. After recently catching up with the NextGen team, several factors became clearer. 1. Valuation: From 36x to 21x *While the current FY12/25 EV/EBITDA multiple appears high at 36x (based on ¥2,400M EBITDA), this figure is misleading …
Next Generation Tech Group (319A) – Why has Next Gen outperformed so far? Read More »
I alerted the SSS (same store sale) turnaround of Workman in 9/24 (my 9/24 note attached). The stock has appreciated 40% since then (actually all the gains came this year). Workman’s SSS trend update is available in my note to the clients. Over the periods of July 23 through September 25. Overall, sales followed an upward …
Workman (7564): Recovery update + Workman vs. Tential (325A) Read More »
I realize I should have included NAV in my initial note of TokyotoKeiba. I prepared a follow-up to provide my NAV calculation along with the assumptions behind it. If you would like to see the note, please DM me! #TokyotoKeiba #NAV #Undervalued #HiddenGem #Japanesestocks #Valuestocks
TokyotoKeiba (TK: MC ¥158bn) is the landowner behind Oi Racecourse. I know that for some people, that alone is a turnoff—“gambling stock,” “sin stock,” or even concerns about animal welfare. But the reality in Japan is a bit different. Horse racing is a well-established, socially acceptable leisure activity, probably more “mainstream” than pachinko at this …
I was preparing a note on Strike (6196). The thesis was straightforward: Rising M&A volume From January–September 2025, disclosed deals by listed companies rose 11% y/y to 985. Including private transactions, Strike estimates ~11,000 deals in 2024 (2018–24 CAGR: 7.6%). Successor-seeking M&A should remain strong as SME owner ages rise (60.9 in 2015 → 63.6 …
M&A Brokers vs. Regional Banks: Who Best Leverages Japan’s Successor M&A Boom? Read More »